Midnight Train will NOT be running an Edinburgh-Paris sleeper, not in 2024 and not ever – unfortunately. I thought we all did this one to death when their plans came out several years ago – the fact that they had drawn an Edinburgh-Paris line on their route map simply proved to us all that they hadn’t yet done a business case, as if they had, they’d have known it wouldn’t work commercially, without a huge subsidy. Please don’t raise people’s hopes unfairly!

While I share the conclusion of “The man in Seat 61”, I would expect difficulties rather in track access costs (which could be changed, and are being changed in some EU countries), in gauge widths (bigger issue, but not so much related to “business case”) and possibly the lack of a way to get through London in absense of a connection from HS1 to HS2.

Paris is a strong destination, and connects well to the remaining France. Viability will primarily rely on carbon regulation for air travel.

A drawback of midnight trains’ concept is the focus on “premium sleeper trains” rather than “night trains with some premium compartments. Premium trains can run on a given route only occasionally rather than daily and efficiently.

With 8 flights from Paris to Edinburgh or Glasgow on a sample day, travel demand on the route is modere, but it could be made work together with another train section from Cologne and passengers from southern France changing trains at Paris.